Long live analog design. but the rant first!!
The issues with 90nm get amplified further when you go to 65nm. Experts believe that things would come to a technological deadend when we reach 35nm since we would be talking about depositing upto 2 layers of atoms in some places on the wafer. The problems of leakage and breakdown would also be amplified further. Although, it is being done in the lab, but companies are not yet convinced of its true marketability. The potential cannot be denied, once and if the issues were ironed out.
One should not fail to notice that during the past 1.5 years, the frequency of the Intel / AMD processors is stuck around the 3.2 GHz mark and more architectural innovation is being made (e.g. FSB frequency increase, 64 bit architectures, QDR RAM, 8x agp, newer bus standards, more cache etc) instead of a just a 2x frequency multiplication every year. (Explain this to a 60 year old greedy CEO with a degree in MBA
).
The transit time of the transistor is no longer the issue. 90nm is fine. It is the interconnect capacitance that is the bottleneck and it is not going anywhere. With 90nm, the sidewall capacitance is more than twice of the layer-to-layer capacitance while place-and-route is performed and the problem is a real one that demands more power to charge the capacitors up. Hence you can see why the speed of the processors is not increasing.
The tools are lagging behind (technology changes every two years but the tools require upto 3 years to catch up), since this nanometer design requires co-design tools that allow the designers to see the parasitics picture at the end of each day, not at the end of several weeks. Hence the development cost is going up and it is not going (all of it) in the productive direction. 90nm remains a challenge as far as manufacturability of the circuits is concerned.
Now it seems that innovation at the architectural level is reaching its dead end too and hence there is panic in the boardrooms. Tell that to the 60 year old crook (CEO) with a degree in finance.
I personally think that the next wave of computers would be optical computers, that would consume much more power, but will keep the consumer treadmill running for another 20 years, giving the customers a 2x increase every year. (when in fact a 20x increase would be trivial to achieve). As a reference, SATA can easily achieve 1.2 Gbps and much much more with the currently available technology, but you will see nothing more than 150Mbps for your hard drive for the next 2 years. Remember the 2x/year treadmill.
The 60 year old crook and his cronies are happy again. picture that!
Active work is being done on optical technology since it would remove the interconnect capacitance issue, but requires a total architectural redesign of the processors/chips (not an easy job). Lot of microwave/ EM/Analog design opportunities.
Another front is the development of biological technology, on which i am no expert. The dilemma though is obvious. These processor/eda giants have little or no experienced workers in the biotech field or any such experience. And the biotech industry speaks another lingo, with no electronics experience. It would be a while before mergers take place and we see some tiny biological computers. (20 years away commercially)
Now tell that to the snake(CEO) and his boardroom parasites.
After 20 years, eliminating computer viruses would require that you spray something on the computer and while you are at it, you can also spray the CEO and his parasites.
Lots of fun times ahead and ANALOG design will survive. We were hearing this digital crap 20 years ago, and we will keep hearing it. For the business-degree-holder-dumb cronies, it is easier to spot the long islands of analog stuff on an incomprehensible and a wasteful automatically generated digital chip. In the end, they will simply get used to it.
Ciao.