You are right about the simulation setup must be wrong. This is one of the downsides of doing such things on borrowed kit.
That simulator was Ansoft Designer, and I did try taking the accuracy up to level 4, and setting the mesh size so that even the trace metal thickness would be over the minimum. We also went for full discrete frequency points instead of "interpolated". The result was a slightly different shape, but still going positive. Not by much (0.02dB), but still a mess.
None of us has HFSS, but we did shamelessly befriend a new pal who drives CST, and asked her to help. A harmonic balance simulation quickly yielded the correct answers. We can now "tune" the inductance by setting down more vias in a row. We get a set of S-Parameter sub-circuits that we can place in the source ports of the HEMT FET.
Maybe life is too short to knock ourselves out going after why the method_of_moments fails on this one, and I would not willingly waste your time, but thanks for your kind reply.