I am not sure when to apply Convection Loss or Conduction Loss as the dominant factor.
When the material is highly conductive such as Aluminium, we know Convection resistance rules for the exposed surface area, which might be only 5 of the 6 cubic faces. This would give the surface temperature rise above ambient.
But if the thermal conductive surface is filled with a very low thermal conductive material such as epoxy, then I think linear Conduction loss may be a major factor for calculating junction temperature rise with the thickness of insulation being dominant to compute the centre junction rise.
I know a class of LEDs used encapsulated in epoxy where the junction is 5% of the case diameter are often rated at RjA of 500 deg C/W, which might closer represent this cube model of epoxy. This would project a 100 ' C rise of a junction with 0.2W. if there was only one (1) source. If this were true, I would incorporated external power dissipation with a Polyfuse for a user fault condition for increased power dissipation.
In any case , no pun intended, using any LED , with -2mV/degC electro-thermal response, this can easily be tested in a 25mm cube of epoxy vs 5mm cylinder dome of epoxy to see the difference using 100mW and measuring the voltage drop intermittently.