Using @wwfeldman's link to the Physics Factbook, I plotted the data and an adequate trend using a 6th order Polynomial.
It has both the absolute Resistivity and the relative value referenced to R300K ( 27 °C)
You can use the ratio At -40 °C = 233 °K relative to your known value or the R/R300K .
Here is the equation for the R/R300K with x= °K and f(x) = R/R300K
Now the reduction in resistance with a constant voltage will raise the power dissipation and thus reduce the thermal colour temperature difference expected. But then I do not know the reason for your temperature.
It appears to have a resistivity ratio of 80% for R233/R273K or R-40C/R0C if you were wondering about the initial cold surge current for this PTC or positive tempco metal.
I suspect the reference IR lamp has a dominant visible temperature around 900 'K @ 500W if it is "ruby red" with most of the power in the IR spectrum.