"Thinks", If I increase the voltage on the base, the same voltage appears on the emitter but with a lower impedance, so it can drive more current back into C1 and C2. If the crystal was replaced by an inductor, this inductor would resonate with C1 and C2 in series, and they would form a tap on the circuit, so any current that gets fed into the tap results in more voltage at the base.
So the voltage builds up until the transistor limits (runs out of Vcc) or saturates (runs out of Ic). The oscillations then change phase and on and on it goes.
The crystal acts like an inductor over a very small frequency range (.01% of its labelled frequency), so the frequency is determined primarily by the crystal and a tiny amount by the other circuit components.
And that's it, look for what a voltage change would do and follow that change through the circuit.
Frank