The calc values you used OK, but not for worst case.
So as a refresher on getting to worst case......
Lets calc the Zener R, assuming no load for simplicity first.
View attachment 183192
So worst case we want 5 mA min thru the Zener.
So Rs = (Vin - Vz) / .005, but worst case is when Vin lowest, Vz highest,
so (Vinmin - Vzmax) / .005 = Rs. Best design would also include the drift
in these voltages over T. Lets ignore that for now.
Now whats the max current will run thru Zener ?
Iz = ( Vin - Vz ) / Rs, worst case when Vin is max, Vz is min, and Rs is min,
so Izmax = (Vinmax - Vzmin) / Tsmin. So we want a Zener rated with some
margin for this.
Worst case, Pz = Vz x Iz, worst case when they both are max,
so Pzmax = Vzmax x Izmax. So we want Zener rated with some
margin for this.
If load were shorted, therefore max power in Rs, Prsmax = Vinmax^2 / Rsmin,
we want a R rated for this power.
Now we can repeat this analysis with superposition with load current to make
life easier, I leave that up to you, to cover the load current addition.
Read about Superposition Theorem (DC Network Analysis) in our free Electronics Textbook
Rise in Aref pin when you connect Atmega, whats the reference set to ? If set to AVCC,
eg. +5, it would pull the pin up a little more.... :
View attachment 183193
Regards, Dana.